WRITTEN BY Benjamin Harris-Myers
Class of 2025, harrismy@usc.edu
This offseason has been arguably the most thrilling and impactful one in the history of the NFL. We’ve seen franchise quarterbacks leave teams they’ve been a part of for decades, last second switch ups to the detriment of some teams and jubilation of others, and record setting contracts.
One particularly fascinating storyline has been that of the AFC west. Last year, the AFC west was one of the more competitive divisions, sporting two playoff berths and lots of compelling games (see Raiders vs Chargers week 17, Chargers vs Chiefs week 15, and Chiefs vs Chargers week 3). In the end, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs still won the division, but this season may not be as easy. This year, I dare say, the AFC west will be the greatest division in football history. Every team other than the Chiefs made significant additions and have seemingly become teams to beat not just within the division, but their conference. Unfortunately, just one of these teams can win the AFC west, but who will it be?
Let’s start with the Kansas City Chiefs. Despite their bumpy start, the Chiefs made a great playoff push, losing to the Cincinnati Bengals in the AFC championship game. The Chiefs did not have the greatest offseason, losing one of the best receivers in the league, Tyreek Hill, and likely will experience a decline. However, since they were so dominant last year, it’s still unlikely that they will fall out of the running for the AFC west this year.
Like I said, their biggest loss was that of Tyreek Hill. Hill is commonly known as the fastest wide receiver in the league, and exceptional before the snap. The Chiefs got a treasure trove of picks for the receiver, but the move doesn’t make much sense to me since the Chiefs are in “win now” mode. The one argument for this trade is that they didn’t have enough cap space to restructure his deal, and might as well look for a receiver in the draft or rebuild some of their lackluster defense.
However, as a backup to potentially missing on a wideout in the draft, the Chiefs picked up JuJu Smith-Schuster from the Steelers. Last year he played only 5 games for Pittsburgh, struggling with a shoulder injury the majority of the season. He understandably put up his worst statistical season last year, but even before that he was on the decline.
In 2018 he had his best and only Pro Bowl season, catching over 1400 yards and hauling in 7 touchdowns as a second option behind a prime Antonio Brown. I believe a lot of his success that year (and lack of success other years) was because of the attention Brown requires from the defense. Keep in mind that in 2019 Antonio Brown left the Steelers, so JuJu had the brunt of the load to carry. JuJu will be joining arguably the best tight end: Travis Kelce. This means that he will be the second option for Mahomes, taking a lot of the pressure off his back. Even though JuJu may not get the same volume of throws as he did as a one, or even a two, he should still provide much needed depth to an otherwise top heavy Chiefs receiving core. Additionally, this should take some of the load off of Kelce’s shoulders, especially with Hill leaving. Last year, the two contributed to 2475 of Mahomes’ 4839 passing yards, and with half of that production gone, the Chiefs were in need of a veteran receiver.
Another loss the Chiefs had during the offseason was Demarcus Robsinson, Mahomes’ 5th favorite target last season. Potentially to take that spot is Marquez Valdes Scantling from the Packers. He is a deep threat similarly to Hill and Robinson, but doesn’t have as much speed as he’s significantly taller. Overall, MVS is an improvement over Robinson, but the Chiefs are downgrading at receiver overall and should be less dynamic offensively next season.
On the defensive side of the ball, things aren’t as positive. During the Mahomes era, the offense has largely carried the team, with the defense just needing to be average to win the game. One of the defense’s brightest spots though was free safety Tyrann Mathieu, the Honey Badger. Honey Badger is a certified ball hawk, snatching the 5th most interceptions since joining the Chiefs in 2019. Additionally, by all accounts Mathieu is one of the big leaders on the defensive side of the ball. As of the writing of this article, Matheiu is a free agent and it doesn’t seem like he’s going to resign with the Chiefs. His impact on and off the field will be missed, but the Chiefs already have his replacement: Justin Reid. Reid is definitely one of the better free safeties in the league, but his being on lackluster Texans teams over the past couple of years has not brought him any buzz.
Even though Reid has better overall raw stats than Mathieu (Reid has fewer yards and completion percentage against him), advanced analytics and PFF suggest that the Chiefs are downgrading slightly.
With all this being said, it’s difficult for me to say that the Chiefs will still be on top this coming season after losing one of the best wide receivers in the league, but if any quarterback-coach combo can remedy this, it’s Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid. It’s absolutely fair that they will stay in competition with the rest of the AFC west for the division crown, but as of now it’s unclear if they will continue to be the Super Bowl contenders that they’ve been over the past 3 years.
The Las Vegas Raiders made the playoffs last year after beating the Chargers in the final game of the year. Even though they lost their first game in the playoffs, last year was a huge success for the Raiders considering what they experienced in the beginning of the season. Last year’s run has attracted many big name players this offseason, namely Davante Adams.
On March 17th, the Raiders traded a first and second round pick to the Green Bay Packers. This is a huge price tag for a wide receiver, but it makes sense for what the Raiders are getting in return. Last year, Adams made it to first team All Pro for the second year in a row, and his 5th consecutive pro bowl appearance. It is up for debate on whether or not he is the best wide receiver in the league with players like Cooper Kupp or even Tyreek Hill, but it is clear he is in the upper echelon of wide receiver talent. He should instantly make an already impressive Raiders offense even more unstoppable.
Last year the Raiders heavily relied on Hunter Renfrow, one of the best slot receivers in the league, and Darren Waller, a top 5 tight end. The production of those two will understandably fall because of this addition, but similarly to JuJu’s situation in Kansas City, they should have many more open looks because of the threat Adams poses to any defense. As if it couldn’t get any sweeter, Derek Carr and Davante Adams played together in college and are great friends off the field. In their final seasons at Fresno State, they both lit up the field, with Carr passing for over 5000 yards and Adams contributing an absurd 1700 to his total. They haven’t played together for almost a decade, but there’s no reason to think that their chemistry shouldn’t get right back to where it was in a hurry.
On the defensive side of the ball, the Raiders made more huge splashes with the acquisition of defensive end Chandler Jones and cornerback Rock Ya-Sin. Last year, the raiders defense in all categories was in the middle of the pack, but these additions look to make it much more impressive. The pass rush in particular should become a QB's worst nightmare. Already on the defensive line was Maxx Crosby, a first time pro bowler and second team All Pro edge rusher. He had 7 sacks last season, one fifth of the Raider’s total of 35, and Jones contributed 10 to the Arizona Cardinals’ 41 sacks. To hold down the secondary, the Raiders traded for Rock Ya-Sin from the Indianapolis Colts. The Raiders are losing defensive end Yannick Ngakoue in this trade, but Jones is still an upgrade, and Ya-Sin fills a position of need.
So where do the Raiders stand after all these moves? One of their bigger issues last year was penalties against them, specifically offensive holding and defensive pass interference.
There was little change made to the offensive line, so for offensive holding we’ll have to wait and see if they can fix their mistakes. Defensively, Ya-Sin may reduce the number of pass interferences, as he was only called for 3 penalties all of last year. On the other hand, he is just one player and it’s difficult to say that his presence alone will stop other Raiders from committing penalties. Overall, the Raiders will definitely be a better team, potentially representing the most explosive offense in the league. Just like the Chiefs, I see them as Super Bowl contenders, but it’s going to be hard to make it out of this division.
In 3rd place last season were the Los Angeles Chargers. They just missed the playoffs after losing their week 17 matchup to the Raiders. There were a lot of unknowns coming into the season, having just fired their coach, but also managing to sign center Corey Linsley from the Packers to bolster an otherwise terrible offensive line. Overall, the Chargers’ season was pretty successful, but they and Justin Herbert are looking to make a huge step forward this year. Like the Raiders, the Chargers made tons of moves all around the ball, but we’ll have to wait and see what pans out.
Arguably the biggest name the Chargers acquired was trading for Khalil Mack from the Chicago Bears. While the former defensive player of the year is coming off his least productive season to date, he should still provide huge value for the Chargers. He only played 7 games because of a season ending foot injury, but still got 6 sacks for the season. Even though he probably won’t maintain that pace for a whole 17 game slate, the Chargers don’t really need him to. Also starring on that Chargers defensive front is Joey Bosa who had 10.5 sacks for himself. Even though the Chargers were in the middle of the back for sacks last year, I see them as improving a substantial amount this year. Having two great pass rushers on the same line is significantly better than one (unless you’re Aaron Donald and only need yourself) as seen with the 49ers last season. In 2020 the 49ers lost Nick Bosa to a season ending injury, and had a lackluster season when it came to pass rush, despite having Arik Armstead who had 10 sacks in 2019 (he only had 3.5 sacks in 2020). However, when Bosa came back this year, they were 5th in the NFL in sacks with 48. Bosa had 15.5 and Armstead had 6. As you can see, a pattern of great pass rushes in this division, and I think it’s essentially a wash if you're comparing all of them. If anything, the offensive lines are going to be the difference, and as it stands only the Chiefs have a great one.
Another huge move by the Chargers was picking up free agent cornerback J.C. Jackson. Last year the Chargers had a very solid pass defense, but ended up slim at corner because of injuries at the position, so Jackson would be filling a position of need. Even though all of their important corners were reactivated during the offseason, Jackson would be an undisputed upgrade over any of them.
The former Patriot has the most interceptions since he joined the league in 2018 (25), and made it to his first pro bowl with 8 interceptions coming last year alone. He also had a 49.1 completion percentage when targeted, which is incredible considering he’d be the one to guard the opponent’s best player every game. Jackson is also joining Derwin James, one of the best safeties in the game right now. Overall, J.C. should improve an already above average pass defense for the Chargers, which will likely prove dividends considering the explosiveness of the offenses in this division.
The final acquisition worth noting for the Chargers was tight end Gerald Everett. I’m not saying that Gerald Everett will be the one to bring the team to the promised land, but his addition is important considering the inconsistency at the position for the Chargers in general.
Overall I believe the Chargers are another Super Bowl contender and all of their important acquisitions will be seamless fits within weeks. Just like the Raiders, the Chargers were penalized a ridiculous amount last year, and I think that is their most glaring weakness to be solved. I also don’t think their offense is as dangerous as the Chiefs or Raiders, but they will still be a big threat come playoff time with their exceptional pass rush and defense.
And finally there are the Denver Broncos. They rounded out the AFC west last year with a measly 7-10 record. They showed flashes of potential with dominant wins over the Chargers and Cowboys last year, but were ultimately limited by inconsistency at the quarterback position. To solve this issue, the Broncos made the biggest trade of the offseason, acquiring the Super Bowl winning quarterback Russell Wilson from the Seahawks.
Any team with Russell Wilson is instantly in the playoff conversation because of how generationally great he is. Last year’s Seahawks underperformed greatly but that was mostly due to how abhorrent their defense and offensive line were. According to ESPN and PFF they were ranked 28th and 25th respectively. Wilson, on the other hand, managed to make it to his 5th straight pro bowl with over 3000 yards and 25 touchdowns. These numbers are actually ticks down from his career averages, but that can be explained by the fact that he missed 3 games due to a finger injury. He came back by the end of the season, and it really shouldn’t be a concern for the Broncos coming into this year. If the Broncos have anything to worry about regarding Wilson, it should be what he’s joining on the offensive side of the ball. The Broncos offensive line, while not as bad as the Seahawks, wasn’t elite, and their weapons are young and unproven. They very well may be unproven because in the last 3 years, they’ve had 7 starting quarterbacks, and just need the reliability that Wilson had provided his whole career. Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton are both wide receivers that fit this mold, but there is also concern in their own injury histories. Sutton tore his ACL in 2020, and Jeudy missed 7 games last year with a high ankle sprain after a promising rookie season. All of my predictions for the previous teams were under the impression that they would be at their full potential, so I don’t believe it would be fair to rule out the Broncos’ weapons because of their past.
While the offensive side of the ball has many unknowns, the defensive side should be absolutely dominant. Last year they ranked in the top 10 in total yards, passing yards, and points allowed.
Rookie corner Patrick Surtain II had an incredible season, highlighted by 4 interceptions and a 51% completion percentage when targeted. Also anchoring the pass defense is free safety Justin Simmons, who had 5 interceptions of his own. The secondary didn’t see much change in the offseason, but it didn’t really need to. Their front seven, however, is a different story. They ranked in the middle of the pack in yards allowed and sacks (15th and 18th respectively) for the whole year, and don’t have Vonn Miller next season. To try and fill this whole they signed free agent Randy Gregory from Dallas. Also on the line is former pro bowler Bradley Chubb. He is yet another Bronco with a suspect injury history, having two great and two injury riddled seasons in his 4 year career. Last year, he played only 7 games due to an ankle injury. If healthy, he and Gregory should represent another ferocious pass rush for the AFC west to deal with, but not necessarily a great run stopping front. Overall, while the Denver defense is somewhat lacking in the rush defense department, they will likely once again be one of the best defenses in the league.
As for the Broncos as a whole, the picture is less clear. There are many concerns regarding the injury history of many important players, but if everyone is healthy, I believe they are the most well rounded team in the AFC West. There is also a reason for worry for Wilson’s fit. Wilson is of course one of the best quarterbacks of the past decade, but he may need some time to get into a new rhythm on a brand new team for the first time in his career. Additionally, introducing a new quarterback is much more difficult than a receiver (this is why I didn’t have as big of a concern for JuJu, Davante or MVS) because everything runs through the quarterback. In many ways, this Broncos team is similar to Tampa Bay two years ago in having a great roster other than quarterback. Unfortunately for the Broncos, the Bucs had much more leeway to lose earlier in the season and get things going as the playoffs approached. In conclusion, however, I once again see the Broncos as a force to be reckoned with if they can get past the injury and chemistry concerns that I have.
To tie it all together, I would rank the AFC west as Chiefs, Raiders, Chargers and Broncos. This is the same rank the teams fell into last year, and while it may seem like a cop out, I think the most fair assumption is that teams should remain where they are until proven otherwise. Patrick Mahomes and Derek Carr are proven postseason quarterbacks, and while the Chargers and Broncos were the two teams with the most improvement on paper, we’ll just have to wait and see what happens. That being said, if the ranking was flipped upside down I wouldn’t be surprised, because as I’ve said, every team has a legitimate shot at making or even winning the Super Bowl.