Author: Matthew Turner, mtturner@usc.edu
Two weeks ago the once-dominant Kansas City Chiefs were blown out at home by the Buffalo Bills by a score of 38-20. The game never seemed close, with the Chiefs down 24-13 by halftime. Even after the extended weather delay at halftime, the Chiefs couldn’t get anything going. They scraped together just one scoring drive in the last 30 minutes of play: a 1-yard TD reception by Travis Kelce. The Chiefs fell to 2-3, their worst record through 5 games since 2015. While they bounced back next week against the Washington Football Team, a lot of work is still to be done. Have the Kansas City Chiefs and superstar Patrick Mahomes lost their crown for good? Or is this just a bump in the road in route to their 3rd consecutive Super Bowl appearance? Let’s take a closer look at what’s been going on this season.
For starters, the Kansas City Chiefs have played some stiff competition. Through the first 5 games of the season, the Kansas City Chiefs have had the toughest schedule in the NFL. Chiefs opponents are a blistering 17-8 so far this season. This includes games against the division leading Chargers, Ravens, and Bills, who all have a 4-1 record. From this point forward, things look to get easier for Kansas City who has the 14th easiest remaining schedule. They’re in for a few more tough matchups against the division leading Titans, Packers, and Cowboys. However, their remaining matchups against the Giants, Steelers, Broncos, and Bengals help to even things out. They have a pretty average schedule moving forward. Overall, the Chiefs have done an okay job navigating the rapids of these first few games and they look to start building success with calmer water just around the bend.
When evaluating their gameplay, the Chiefs offense has been performing quite well. Their 420.4 yards per game ranks 4th in the NFL and their 30.8 points per game ranks 5th. When compared to last year’s averages of 415.8 yards and 29.6 points per game, it appears as though the Kansas City offense has been full steam ahead to start this season. This conclusion is also supported when looking at Patrick Mahomes’ numbers. When comparing his first 5 games of last season with this season, he actually appears to be performing better. His completion rate is up from 64.6% to 71% and his passing touchdowns increased from 13 to 16. His QBR, passer rating, and passing yards are almost identical to the year before. However, the main issue is in his number of interceptions. Mahomes has thrown 6 interceptions through the first 5 games this season, already tying his mark of 6 interceptions through 16 games last season. In all, Patrick Mahomes is still playing solid football and once he can get his interceptions back under control, it should translate to the win column.
On the other side of the ball, the Chiefs defense has been worse than in years past. Through 5 games they have given up a league high 32.6 points per game and a 2nd worst 437.4 yards per game. The past 2 seasons the Chiefs have fielded one of the better defenses in the NFL, finishing 11th in points per game in 2020 and 7th in points per game in 2019. However, the Chiefs have regressed much to the likes of their defense during Patrick Mahomes’ MVP season in 2018, in which the Chiefs allowed the 2nd most yards per game and the 9th most points per game. Part of this regression can be attributed to the Chiefs difficult strength of schedule. The Chiefs defense has gone against the league's 1st, 6th, 7th, and 9th highest scoring offenses this season. However, even when going against the 16th highest scoring offense, the Philadelphia Eagles, the Chiefs defense was torched for 30 points: 7 points higher than Philadelphia’s scoring average and their second-highest total this season (scored 32 points against Atlanta’s 28th ranked defense). It’s clear that the Kansas City defense has some serious work to do to return to last year’s form. Although Kansas City proved that it’s possible to win without a defense when they made it to the AFC championship game in 2018 on the back of Patrick Mahomes’ MVP season, it’s significantly harder to find long-term success.
If the Chiefs are going to turn things around, they’re going to need all hands on deck. Unfortunately, that might not be possible as several key players are still recovering from various injuries. Patrick Mahomes’ favorite target and #4 WR in the NFL Tyreek Hill suffered a quad contusion in Sunday’s game against Buffalo. However, leg injuries can linger with wide receivers, so this will be something to watch. Star TE Travis Kelce suffered a stinger late in the game against Buffalo, but it looks like Kelce will be good to go on Sunday which is good news for Kansas City. They’re going to need Kelce more than usual because RB Clyde-Edwards Helaire has an MCL sprain which is going to keep him sidelined for a couple weeks. This is a big hit to the Kansas City run game which currently ranks 7th in the NFL and serves as a nice compliment to their 5th ranked passing attack.